A complex of storms over Northern Kansas will continue to weaken overnight as it moves towards the Four States. In fact, we may not see much rain at all. However, it will leave an outflow boundary across Southeast Kansas and Northeast Oklahoma. This will likely be the focus for afternoon showers and storms. While we could see some gusty winds with theses storms, the a cold front will give us a greater risk for severe storms late Thursday afternoon into the evening.
The main risks will be damaging winds to 70 miles an hour and large hail (maybe up to 2″ in diameter). An isolated, brief tornado will be possible as a cold front sweeps through Thursday evening but this is a pretty low end risk. The winds aloft just aren’t conducive for much shear, or turning of winds with height.