Hurricane Dorian has been on a downward trend of strength for the last two days. After passing over the Bahama’s, it has been dropped to a Category 2. As of yesterday afternoon, Dorian’s eye has essentially collapsed which is a strong sign of weakness for a Hurricane.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion estimate is slightly northwest at around 5 mph. Dorian is being steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and a broad trough to its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida during that time.
Expected landfall onto the US is still uncertain. Dorian will have part of the western quadrant over land at all times. That amount of constant friction will deteriorate the storm slowly. Steady flow on the eastern quadrant will steadily supply moisture to support heavy rain bands as Dorian continues to travel northward, slowly.