The day will start out only partly cloudy today, but skies will become mostly cloudy very quickly during the morning, as an area of low pressure aloft shifts northeast out of the Southern Plains toward the Four States area. By mid afternoon, enough moistening of the lower level atmosphere will have developed, along with strengthening lift, for the initiation of light rainfall. The near surface air will still be very dry initially, and as this rain falls into that lower level air mass, sufficient cooling due to evaporation will chill this air closer to the ground to around the freezing mark. This will cause some light snow to mix with the rain from around 5 to 9 pm, but a complete transition to snow is likely late Monday evening into the early morning hours on Tuesday, as cold air advection strengthens behind the eastward moving upper level low. The light snow should gradually fade away around 4 am, as drier air builds into the region; but not before laying down a light dusting of snow. Snowfall amounts should be generally less than an inch, but some spots could pick up amounts around one inch. Greater snow accumulation is expected across the higher terrain in Northwest Arkansas. In this area amounts may be closer to two inches, due to orographic lift and better proximity to deeper moisture and lift associated with the upper low. Motorists should drive with caution on their transit to work, or to drop the kids off at school on Tuesday morning. While ground temperatures appear to be too warm to allow much of the light accumulation to impact area roads to a large degree, some elevated spots; such as bridges and overpasses that don’t have enough radiant energy flux from Sunday’s full complement of insolation, may become hazardous overnight with minor glazing from light snow accumulations and freezing of rainwater and melted snow. We will wish we could have Monday’s high temperatures in the lower and middle 40s back again on Tuesday, but a colder northerly flow and overcast skies behind our departed storm system will limit highs to the upper 30s across much of the area. And, it will be even colder on Wednesday, as a reinforcing shot of cold air builds south out of the northern Plains; limiting high temperatures to the middle 30s. It certainly appears that those relatively recent days when the mercury was rising to near 80 degrees are over, until Spring 2023. The winter season is upon us.