Today begins with some patchy fog because the mostly cloudy skies across the region during the day Sunday did not allow much evaporation from the surface after our soaking rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Clearing skies, an area of high pressure building across the region with decreasing winds, and the moist low level conditions will keep a few patches of fog around early this morning. However a tightening pressure gradient between our eastward shifting surface high and a deepening area of low pressure over the plains will bring strengthening southerly winds through the KSN/KODE viewing area, as the morning progresses toward mid day. Low level mixing of drier air from aloft to the surface and nearly full sunshine will dissipate the fog rather quickly. A beautiful afternoon is in store, as skies remain filled with sunshine. High temperatures should top out around 55 to 60 across the area. Tonight will be a relatively mild night with low temperatures not far from our normal high temperatures for late November. Lows will cool only a few degrees tonight into the lower 50s. Clouds will be on the increase on Tuesday as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a late afternoon through early evening arriving cold front. Before it gets here, southwesterly winds around 20 to 25 miles an hour will boost high temperatures into the middle 60s. The interesting thing about this front, is that the front will move through the area with little chance for a drop of rain, as the low level influx of moisture off the western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward well east of the Four State area; impacting southeastern Missouri and eastern sections of Arkansas through the rest of the Lower Mississippi Valley. We are fortunate that we will be left out of this particular chance for more drought alleviating precipitation, because the atmospheric set up for this cold frontal passage is concerning, due to the strong wind shear and rather significant instability that will be present for a system of this kind, during the colder part of the year. Additionally, the low level wind structure in association with this storm system will be more than sufficient to generate rotating thunderstorm updrafts that help with the formation of supercell storms. Supercell thunderstorms are often associated with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. While we won’t be participants in this severe thunderstorm outbreak, we will suffer the other negative aspect of this strong cold front; and that is that sharp drop in temperatures behind the front. After enjoying highs in the mid 60s on Tuesday, high temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees on Wednesday will be tough to take. The good news is that we should get back into the 50s for highs on Friday, with continuation into the weekend!
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