KANSAS — We are just a few weeks away from the November general election. One of the biggest races in Kansas is for the open U.S. Senate seat — and multiple polls are releasing predictions.
We have seen six polls from different organizations since March and depending on which poll you see, there could be quite different results.
When looking at poll results it’s important to take into account how people were polled. For instance, how likely are you to answer the phone for an unknown number? Organizations like Public Policy Polling tend to use phone calls and texts. Whereas Civiqs Online polls people online. Most organizations use a combination of calls, texts and online surveys.
You should also look to see who is conducting the poll. For example, the NRSC released a poll June 19th that showed Republican Candidate Roger Marshall in the lead of Barbara Bollier by 11 points. However, these poll results came from the National Republican Senate Committee — so there could be a lean toward the Republican candidate.
The most recent poll released September 19th from Data For Progress shows Marshall and Bollier tied. Most polls are conducted online or via text, but the organization leans to the left on political issues.
Political Analyst, Dr. Bob Beatty, says this early in the process, many voters are waiting to see how the candidates do in a statewide televised debate.
Dr. Bob Beatty, Political Analyst, said, “It’s going to be hard to see what’s going to influence this race, so a debate has the potential to influence the race.”
And Dr. Beatty took the average of the last five senate polls. That average shows Marshall leading over Bollier by just 3 points.